Demographic challenge of job creation

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Trends showing a slowdown in globalisation indicate worrying days ahead for job creation.


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Demographic challenge of job creation


A key concern for policy-makers is the rate at which new joinees in workforce globally can get good jobs. The most vital research is done by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) - its report is titled World Employment Social Outlook [Refer Bodhi Resources page for download links]

Five key learnings from the WESO 2017 are – (1) Global GDP growth is low, and 2017 may be very bad (less than 3%). (2) This will directly affect number of jobs generated and quality of employment, (3) inclusive sharing of fruits of growth, (4) In 2017, unemployment will rise by 34 lacs, and vulnerable unemployment globally will remain at 140 crores, and (5) achieving Sustainable Development Goals may be not possible with such a scenario. Globally, 140 crore people are involved in jobs that are vulnerable – which means they do not have enough social security provisions to protect them in case of emergencies. Two key regions are Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Globalisation’s success and legitimacy through the 1990s and early 2000s was largely because the income levels of the lowest rung of workers had started improving. That trend has slowed down, and it will have other implications, most notably political. 

The 2030 SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) have set 2030 as the target date for major poverty reduction and elimination. Those targets will be threatened in a big way unless these vulnerable people see a visible change. The challenges for policymakers is clear – a more egalitarian distribution of incomes and opportunities, and a reduction in predatory globalization and private enterprise. If that does not happen, we can expect major political upheavals. The challenge for Indian education system is even clearer – Radically overhaul the idea, theme and structure, or go totally obsolete.


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रोजगार निर्मिती की जनसांख्यिकीय चुनौती


नीति-निर्माताओं के लिए एक महत्वपूर्ण चिंता वह दर है जिससे वैश्विक स्तर पर कार्यबल में शामिल होने वाले नए लोगों को अच्छी नौकरियां प्राप्त हों। सर्वाधिक महत्वपूर्ण अनुसंधान अंतर्राष्ट्रीय श्रम संगठन (आईएलओ) द्वारा किया गया है – उसकी रिपोर्ट का शीर्षक है विश्व रोजगार का सामाजिक दृष्टिकोण (डब्लूईएसओ) [डाउनलोड लिंक्स के लिए बोधि संसाधन का संदर्भ लें]

डब्लू.ई.एस.ओ. 2017 से प्राप्त पांच महत्वपूर्ण सीखें निम्नानुसार हैं – (1) वैश्विक जीडीपी वृद्धि न्यून है, और वर्ष 2017 अत्यंत खराब रह सकता है (3 प्रतिशत से भी कम)। (2) इसका सीधा प्रभाव नवनिर्मित नौकरियों की संख्या और रोजगार की गुणवत्ता पर पड़ेगा, (3) वृद्धि के लाभों की समावेशी साझेदारी, (4) वर्ष 2017 में बेरोजगारी में 34 लाख की वृद्धि होगी, और वैश्विक स्तर पर भेद्य रोजगार 140 करोड़ के स्तर पर रहेंगे, और (5) इस प्रकार के परिदृश्य के चलते धारणीय विकास लक्ष्यों को प्राप्त करना संभव नहीं हो पाएगा।वैश्विक स्तर पर 140 करोड़ लोग ऐसे रोजगारों में संलग्न हैं जो अत्यंत भेद्य हैं – इसका अर्थ यह है कि आपातकालीन स्थिति में संरक्षण के लिए उनके पास पर्याप्त सुरक्षा प्रावधान उपलब्ध नहीं होंगे। दो महत्वपूर्ण क्षेत्र हैं उप-सहाराई अफ्रीका और दक्षिण एशिया। 1990 के दशक और 2000 के दशक के प्रारंभ के दौरान वैश्वीकरण की सफलता और वैधता का कारण श्रमिकों के न्यूनतम स्तर की आय के स्तरों में सुधार की शुरुआत होना था। वह रुझान अब धीमा हो गया है और इसके अन्य प्रभाव भी होंगे, जो अधिक उल्लेखनीय रूप से राजनीतिक प्रभाव होंगे।

वर्ष 2030 के धारणीय विकास लक्ष्यों (एसडीजी) ने प्रमुख निर्धनता न्यूनीकरण और विलोपन के लिए वर्ष 2030 का लक्ष्य निर्धारित किया है। यदि इन भेद्य लोगों को एक दृश्य परिवर्तन दिखाई नहीं देता है तो ये लक्ष्य गंभीर रूप से खतरे में होंगे। नीति-निर्माताओं के समक्ष की चुनौती स्पष्ट है – आय और अवसरों का एक अधिक समान वितरण और हिंसक वैश्वीकरण और निजी उपक्रमों में कमी। यदि यह नहीं होता तो तो हम भारी राजनीतिक उथल-पुथल की अपेक्षा कर सकते हैं। भारत की शिक्षा प्रणाली के समक्ष की चुनौती तो और भी अधिक स्पष्ट है - या तो विचार, विषयवस्तु और संरचना में आमूल-चूल परिवर्तन करें या पूरी तरह से अप्रचलित और बेकार हो जाएँ।

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Bodhi Saar: Demographic challenge of job creation
Demographic challenge of job creation
Trends showing a slowdown in globalisation indicate worrying days ahead for job creation.
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