Oiling the Indian economy with low prices


India has benefitted hugely from low oil prices. Times may change.

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Oiling the Indian economy with low prices

India’s net oil and gas import bill (after reducing the export earnings) = 2.5% GDP (more than our CAD). The Union Government has been able to reduce the Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficits in the past three years. What is not openly said is “the dramatic collapse in crude oil prices has enabled it”Crude that was at $110 in 2011 had collapsed to just $25 in 2015, and is now at $50. Indian retail prices of petrol and diesel didn’t drop proportionately at all – the government has made huge tax revenues from increasing the Central Excise Duty and State’s VAT repeatedly (total 9 times). Government’s tax collection as a % of GDP from petrol and diesel → 2013-14 – 0.4%, 2015-16 – 1.1%. Compare this to the reduction in fiscal deficit in same period 2013-14 – 4.5%, 2015-16 – 3.9%. 

It is plainly visible that “the entire reduction in fiscal deficit was due to more taxes from petrol / diesel!” There are other benefits – reduced subsidy burden, that further improved central finances. Subsidy on Diesel was 0.6% of GDP in 2013-14. That subsidy has been eliminated! (jointly by GoI /PSUs) Subsidies on PDS Kerosene and LPG also reduced. But this was more of a reform (appreciable). The OPEC has recently agreed to cut production by 1.8%, to improve prices (i.e. to increase prices!) This will have a direct bearing on our government’s expenditure, unless prices are sharply revised up. The Seventh Pay Commission and OROP payouts are straining the finances already. And higher prices will impact the CAD also (Current Account Deficit). Thus, through entire 2017 and 18, oil prices will determine what happens to govt. finances in India.

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अल्प तेल कीमतों के साथ अर्थव्यवस्था का पोषण

भारत का शुद्ध तेल और गैस आयात बिल (निर्यात अर्जनों को घटाने के बाद) = जीडीपी का 25 प्रतिशत (हमारे चालू खाता घाटे से अधिक)। पिछले तीन वर्षों में केंद्र सरकार राजकोषीय घाटे और चालू खाता घाटे को कम करने में सफल हुई है। जो खुलकर नहीं बताया जाता वह यह है कि “कच्चे तेल की गिरती कीमतों ने इसे संभव बनाया है”। कच्चा तेल, जो वर्ष 2011 में 110 डॉलर पर था, वह वर्ष 2015 में गिरकर केवल 25 डॉलर रह गया, और अब वह 50 डॉलर के स्तर पर है। भारत में पेट्रोल और डीजल की कीमतें इसी अनुपात में बिलकुल नहीं गिरीं - सरकार ने बार-बार (कुल 9 बार) केंद्रीय उत्पादन शुल्क और राज्य मूल्य संवर्धित कर में वृद्धि करके भारी मात्रा में कर राजस्व अर्जित किया है। जीडीपी के प्रतिशत के रूप में पेट्रोल और डीजल से सरकार का कर संग्रहण → 2013-14 - 0.4 प्रतिशत, 2015-16 - 1.1 प्रतिशत। इसी अवधि के लिए राजकोषीय घाटे में हुई कमी के साथ इसकी तुलना करें → 2013-14 - 4.5 प्रतिशत, 2015-16 - 3.9 प्रतिशत

यह स्पष्ट रूप से दिखाई देता है कि “राजकोषीय घाटे में हुई संपूर्ण कमी पेट्रोल और डीजल से प्राप्त अधिक राजस्व के कारण हुई है”। इसके अन्य लाभ भी हैं - अनुवृत्तियों के बोझ में हुई कमी, जिसने केंद्रीय वित्त में और अधिक सुधार किया। वर्ष 2013-14 में डीजल पर अनुवृत्ति जीडीपी की 0.6 प्रतिशत थी। यह अनुवृत्ति रद्द कर दी गई है! (भारत सरकार और सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र के उपक्रमों द्वारा संयुक्त रूप से)। सार्वजनिक वितरण व्यवस्था के माध्यम से दिए जाने वाले मिटटी के तेल और घरेलू गैस पर अनुवृत्ति भी कम हुई है। परंतु यह एक सुधार के रूप में अधिक था (प्रशंसनीय)। मूल्य में सुधार के लिए (अर्थात मूल्य वृद्धि के लिए!) हाल ही में ओपेक ने उत्पादन में 1.8 प्रतिशत की कटौती की स्वीकृति दी है। यदि कीमतों में तीव्र संशोधन नहीं किया गया तो इसका हमारे सरकारी व्यय पर सीधा प्रभाव पड़ेगा। सातवें वेतन आयोग और ओआरओपी के भुगतान पहले ही वित्त व्यवस्था पर तनाव डाल रहे हैं। और उच्च कीमतें चालू खाता घाटे को भी प्रभावित करेंगी। इस प्रकार, संपूर्ण 2017 और 18 के दौरान भारत सरकार की वित्तीय स्थिति कैसी रहेगी इसका निर्धारण तेल की कीमतें करेंगी।

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Bodhi Saar: Oiling the Indian economy with low prices
Oiling the Indian economy with low prices
India has benefitted hugely from low oil prices. Times may change.
Bodhi Saar
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