Indian economy 2017 – in a churn

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Huge changes are afoot in the Indian economy in 2017.


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Indian economy 2017 – in a churn


What P.V. Narasimha Rao did in 1991 was as radical as what is needed today. India needs to be transformed fundamentally if growing unease is to be shaped positively. India in 2017 has big changes coming its way – the G.S.T., new Budget date, a single Budget. Indian budget preparation exercise is intricate, detailed and multifarious. Various industry bodies (Assocham, CII, FICCI etc.) actively suggest changes to government. A challenge for India post 2013 has been the moribund investment sentiment. It hurts! All industry bodies have made suggestions, the broad gist of which is as follows – 
  • The PPP model needs a huge push now (it nearly collapsed by 2013/14).
  • Kelkar Committee recommendation are pending on revitalising infrastructure PPPs.
  • Informal sector dominates totally, but we have to focus on quality jobs in formal sector.
  • Not too rigid and Not lacking protection – a golden mean required in employment
  • India has to invest heavily in technology (company-wise & institutional)    
  • Tax base rationalisation can prove dramatically effective if implemented properly
  • The PSU disinvestment targets are unmet since years. Huge locked potential.
  • Making India competitive in the long run through real reforms, not mere touch-ups
Demonetisation has created a big change in the economy. Adequate followups can do wonders. With a huge demographic dividend, India is looking for right channeling of energies. Otherwise? Low growth, poor skills, low per capita income, rising wealth inequalities.

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श्री पी.वी. नरसिंह राव ने वर्ष 1991 में जो किया वह उग्र सुधारवादी था जैसा कि आज आवश्यक है। यदि बढती व्यग्रता को सकारात्मक रूप से परिवर्तित करना है तो आज भारत को मौलिक परिवर्तन की आवश्यकता है। वर्ष 2017 में भारत में बड़े परिवर्तन होने वाले हैं - जीएसटी, बजट का तिथि परिवर्तन और एकल बजट। भारत के बजट को तैयार करने की प्रक्रिया पेचीदा, विस्तृत और बहुविध है। अनेक औद्योगिक निकाय (एसोचैम, सीआईआई, एफआईसीसीआई इत्यादि) सक्रिय रूप से सरकार को परिवर्तन के सुझाव देते हैं। वर्ष 2013 के बाद भारत के लिए एक चुनौती मृतप्राय निवेश भावना रही है। यह पीड़ादायक है! सभी औद्योगिक निकायों ने सुझाव दिए हैं जिनका मोटे तौर पर वर्णन निम्नानुसार है 
  • अब सार्वजनिक-निजी भागीदारी (पीपीपी) मॉडल को एक बड़े धक्के की आवश्यकता है (वर्ष 2013-14 में यह लगभग मृत हो गई थी)
  • सशक्त अधोसंरचना सार्वजनिक-निजी भागीदारियों पर केलकर समिति की सिफारिशें लंबित हैं
  • अनौपचारिक क्षेत्र पूरी तरह से हावी है, परंतु हमें अनौपचारिक क्षेत्र में गुणवत्तापूर्ण रोजगार पर ध्यान केंद्रित करना चाहिए
  • यह न तो अधिक कठोर हो और न ही इसमें संरक्षण का अभाव हो - रोजगार में एक स्वर्णिम माध्य आवश्यक है
  • भारत को प्रौद्योगिकी के क्षेत्र में  भारी मात्रा में निवेश करना चाहिए (कंपनी-वार और संस्थागत)
  • यदि सही ढंग से क्रियान्वित किया जाए तो कर आधार का युक्तिकरण नाटकीय रूप से प्रभावशाली साबित हो सकता है
  • सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र के उपक्रमों के विनिवेश के लक्ष्य वर्षों से अपूर्ण रहे हैं। इनमें भारी मात्रा में क्षमता और संभावना बंद पड़ी है
  • मात्र परिष्करण के बजाय वास्तविक सुधारों के माध्यम से दीर्घकाल में भारत को प्रतिस्पर्धी बनाना 
विमुद्रीकरण ने अर्थव्यवस्था को बड़ा परिवर्तन अचानक से दिया है। पर्याप्त अनुवर्तन चमत्कार कर सकते हैं। एक विशाल जनसांख्यिकीय लाभांश के साथ भारत इस ऊर्जा के सही मार्गदर्शन की ओर देख रहा है। अन्यथा? न्यून वृद्धि, कमजोर कौशल, न्यून प्रति व्यक्ति आय, और बढती सांपत्तिक असमानताएँ।

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Bodhi Saar: Indian economy 2017 – in a churn
Indian economy 2017 – in a churn
Huge changes are afoot in the Indian economy in 2017.
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