Union Budget 2017-18 – External situation dictating decisions?

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The economy is struggling with multiple challenges simultaneously. Deglobalisation looms.


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Union Budget 2017-18 – External situation dictating decisions?


The tax-to-GDP ratio has increased to above 11% for the first time since 2007-08, after which it has remained around 10% till now. Similarly, expenditure-to-GDP ratio has declined over the years. This would increase confidence in the country’s economy. The FM enjoyed the advantage of lower oil prices last year, which would not be available to him this year. Hence, the deficit targets (both fiscal and revenue) will be tough to achieve. The govt. could use the windfall from DeMo in the form of removing some of the liabilities of RBI.  (But no such mention was available anywhere). With falling growth, DeMo could be key to realising more taxes to maintain fiscal stability. The budget has offered schemes and initiatives aimed at particular segments, farmers, the rural poor and youth. Exports growth is important for boosting overall economic growth. Until a couple of years ago, we hoped the revival of global economy would increase our exports. Now we are faced with a situation where the very survival of globalisation is at stake. This means our exports would take a hit. What of our growth rate then?  You can refer to Bodhi resources page for downloading the PDFs of Economic Survey and Union Budget. 

केंद्रीय बजट 2017-2018 - निर्णयों को निर्देशित करती बाह्य स्थिति?


कर-से-जीडीपी अनुपात वर्ष 2007-08 के बाद पहली बार 11 प्रतिशत से अधिक हुआ है, जबकि इस अवधि के बाद से अब तक यह 10 प्रतिशत के आसपास ही रहा है। उसी प्रकार व्यय-से-जीडीपी के अनुपात में बीते वर्षों के दौरान कमी हुई है। इसके कारण अर्थव्यवस्था के प्रति विश्वास में वृद्धि होगी। पिछले वर्ष वित्तमंत्री को गिरती तेल कीमतों का लाभ प्राप्त था, जो उन्हें इस वर्ष उपलब्ध नहीं होगा। अतः अब यह देखना रोचक होगा कि घाटे (राजकोषीय और राजस्व, दोनों) के लक्ष्य किस प्रकार से प्राप्त किये जाते हैं। विमुद्रीकरण से प्राप्त लाभ का उपयोग सरकार आरबीआई की कुछ देयताओं को समाप्त करने के लिए कर सकती है। गिरती वृद्धि की स्थिति में विमुद्रीकरण अधिक कर वसूल करने और राजकोषीय स्थिरता बनाए रखने की दृष्टि से महत्वपूर्ण होगा। बजट ने समाज के विशिष्ट वर्गों को लक्षित करके योजनाएं और पहलें घोषित की हैं, ये वर्ग हैं किसान, ग्रामीण गरीब और युवा। समग्र आर्थिक वृद्धि को बढ़ावा देने में निर्यात की महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका होती है। कुछ वर्ष पूर्व तक हम उम्मीद कर रहे थे कि वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था के पुनः प्रवर्तन (पुनरुज्जीवन) से निर्यातों में वृद्धि होगी। परंतु आज हम एक ऐसी स्थिति में पहुँच गए हैं जहाँ वैश्वीकरण का अस्तित्व ही खतरे में है। तो अब हमारी वृद्धि दर का क्या होगा? कृपया आर्थिक समीक्षा एवं केंद्रीय बजट के पीडीएफ दस्तावेज हेतु बोधि संसाधन पृष्ठ पर जायें।

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Bodhi Saar: Union Budget 2017-18 – External situation dictating decisions?
Union Budget 2017-18 – External situation dictating decisions?
The economy is struggling with multiple challenges simultaneously. Deglobalisation looms.
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