Resetting global equations

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The Afghanistan piece in the regional jigsaw puzzle remains intriguing.



Resetting global equations


Afghanistan is proving a crucial piece in the jigsaw puzzle that is India – China relationship. Recently, India and China conducted their “Strategic Dialogue”. In that, it emerged that China’s policy on Afghanistan is very much similar to Indian policy (“in tandem”). That “Strategic Dialogue” was divided into 5 sub categories – one was Afghanistan. China was appreciative of the developmental work by India, there. Both India and China agree that government of Afghanistan must be strengthened. What is the background of this? (1) Growing threat from I.S. to China. The Chinese Uighur Muslims who joined the I.S. threatened to “shed blood like rivers” and then the Chinese military showed its might in Xinjiang. (2) This has prompted China to join hands with Russia and engage with the Taliban in Afghanistan. (3) Spillover effect of instability in Afghanistan is scaring China – the ETIM is active in Xinjiang.  (What is ETIM?) 

The American position is unclear so far. The ISAF is withdrawing, and so China wants to engage India which already has terrific goodwill in Afghanistan. So the dragon is playing its cards keeping its selfish interest uppermost. There are serious difference though. (1) The Chinese feel that there are some in the Taliban that are not extreme, (2) The JeM chief Masood Azhar’s case is still hanging fire, (3) The Sino-Indian counter-terror dialogues have produced little result despite some rounds, and India continues to face state-sponsored terror from Pakistan, (4) China is clear – it will never harm Pakistan’s interests at all in South Asia (that is the biggest asset it has against India, and in trying to bypass the Malacca strait). China only recently started speaking to India when ISAF started withdrawing from Afghanistan. Now that China is showing signs of talking to India on Afghanistan, India must grab the opportunity to create some new regional cooperation possibility.

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भारत - चीन संबंध नामक पहेली में अफगानिस्तान एक महत्वपूर्ण टुकड़ा साबित हो रहा है। हाल ही में भारत और चीन ने अपनी “सामरिक चर्चा” का आयोजन किया। उसमें यह उभरकर सामने आया कि अफगानिस्तान के प्रति चीन की नीति भारत के समान ही है (“मिलकर”) । यह “सामरिक चर्चा” 5 उप-श्रेणियों में विभाजित थी - एक थी अफगानिस्तान। चीन भारत के वहां किये जा रहे विकास कार्यों का प्रशंसक था। भारत और चीन दोनों मानते हैं कि अफगानिस्तान की सरकार को मजबूती प्रदान की जानी चाहिए। इसकी पृष्ठभूमि क्या है? (1) चीन को आई. एस. की ओर से होने वाला खतरा। चीन के वे उइगुर मुस्लिम जो आई. एस. में प्रविष्ट हुए उन्होंने “खून की नदियाँ बहाने” की धमकी दी और फिर चीनी सेना ने शिन्जियांग में अपनी शक्ति का प्रदर्शन किया। (2) इसने चीन को रूस के साथ हाथ मिलाने और अफगानिस्तान में तालिबान के साथ जुड़ने के लिए प्रेरित किया। (3) अफगानिस्तान की अस्थिरता के रिसाव प्रभाव चीन को भयभीत कर रहे हैं - ईटीआईएम शिन्जियांग में सक्रिय हैं। (ईटीआईएम क्या है?) 

अभी तक अमेरिका का रुख अस्पष्ट है। आईएसएएफ वापसी कर रहा है, अतः चीन भारत को इसमें शामिल करना चाहता है जिसके प्रति अफगानिस्तान में पहले से ही काफी सद्भावना है। अतः ड्रैगन अपने हितों को सर्वोच्च रखते हुए अपने पत्ते खेल रहा है। हालांकि इसमें भी गहरे मतभेद हैं। (1) चीनियों को लगता है कि तालिबान में कुछ ऐसे तत्व भी हैं जो चरमपंथी नहीं हैं, (2) साथ ही, जैश-ए-मोहम्मद प्रमुख मसूद अजहर का मामला अभी भी लटका हुआ है, (3) कई दौर की चर्चा के बावजूद चीन-भारत आतंकवाद-विरोधी चर्चाओं के भी अधिक परिणाम नहीं निकले हैं, और भारत लगातार पाकिस्तान सरकार द्वारा प्रायोजित आतंकवाद का दंश झेल रहा है, (4) चीन स्पष्ट है - वह दक्षिण एशिया में पाकिस्तान के हितों को कभी नुकसान नहीं पहुंचाएगा (भारत के विरुद्ध, और मलक्का जलडमरूमध्य को बायपास करने के लिए उसका यही सबसे बड़ा अस्त्र है)। चीन ने हाल ही में भारत से बातचीत करना तब शुरू किया है जब आईएसएएफ ने अफगानिस्तान से वापसी करना शुरू किया। अब जबकि चीन ने अफगानिस्तान पर भारत के साथ बातचीत करना शुरू किया है, तो भारत को इस अवसर का लाभ उठाते हुए किसी नई क्षेत्रीय सहयोग की संभावना तलाशनी चाहिए।

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Bodhi Saar: Resetting global equations
Resetting global equations
The Afghanistan piece in the regional jigsaw puzzle remains intriguing.
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