India’s job system is broken – repair needed

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India seems to be following the global trends of jobless growth. Time for some big moves.


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India’s job system is broken – repair needed


The Modi government came to power in 2014 on the promise of creating jobs for the youth and taking advantage of India’s favourable demographic dividend. The present government has so far presented three budgets since it came to power. However, it can be observed that every subsequent budget of this government has gradually shifted from a reformist to a populist one. A politically elected government obviously has certain dominant political compulsions which put the economy’s economic compulsions in the shadow as the government goes nearer to elections. The 2016-17 budget, by and large, reflected the Bihar elections defeat of the BJP, and the budget of 2017-18 seems to have been prepared with an eye on the state assembly elections, and also under the influence of the reality that the government would be facing the 2019 elections in about two years from now. The government has however, admirably stuck to the fiscal discipline, with some minor slippages. Budgets are predominantly meant to signal the direction of the economic policy. The first budget of the present government showed its intent to transform India and focused on the key transformation issues of infrastructure and devolution of funds to states. The present budget was presented in the backdrop of demonetization move of the government. There are no figures to prove whether the move achieved its objectives. Growth forecasts have drastically slumped. Read a detailed Hindi article on Jobs Scenario. The budget should have announced measures to revive the economy from its current situation. But the budget has failed to do that. It would require the next two years for the economy to be back on track. So shall we say that they are wasted years? The NPA problem of PSU banks is becoming more and more dangerous with each passing day. We have the example of America, where a similar problem took a very heavy toll of their economy from which it is still struggling. The government calls the rating agencies as biased, but with declining private investment, increasing NPAs and uncertainty created by demonetization, the task of the rating agencies seems to have been cut out.
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मोदी सरकार युवाओं के लिए नौकरियों के निर्माण और भारत के विशाल अनुकूल जनसांख्यिकीय लाभांश का लाभ उठाने के वादे के आधार पर सत्ता में आई थी। वर्तमान सरकार ने अब तक तीन बजट प्रस्तुत किये हैं। हालांकि, यह देखा जा सकता है कि इस सरकार का प्रत्येक अगला बजट धीरे-धीरे सुधारक से लोकलुभावन में परिवर्तित होता गया। एक राजनीतिक रूप से चुनी हुई सरकार की निश्चित ही कुछ राजनीतिक मजबूरियां होती हैं, और जेइसे-जैसे सरकार चुनावों की ओर अग्रसर होती है वैसे-वैसे ये राजनीतिक मजबूरियां अर्थव्यवस्था की आर्थिक मजबूरियों पर हावी होती जाती हैं। व्यापक दृष्टि से वर्ष 2016-17 के बजट पर भाजपा की बिहार चुनावों में पराजय प्रतिबिंबित होती थी और वर्ष 2017-18 के बजट पर नजर डालें तो ऐसा प्रतीत होता है कि यह बजट आगामी विधानसभा चुनावों पर दृष्टि रख कर बनाया गया है, साथ ही इसमें यह वास्तविकता भी प्रतिबिंबित होती है कि अगले दो वर्षों में सरकार को आम चुनावों का सामना करना है। हालांकि अपने सभी बजटों में सरकार ने राजकोषीय अनुशासन को नियंत्रित रखने का अच्छा प्रयास किया है जिसमें कुछ मामूली रिसाव ही हुए हैं। बजट का मूल उद्देश्य देश की आर्थिक दिशा का संकेत देने का होता है। वर्तमान सरकार के पहले बजट ने सरकार की आर्थिक परिवर्तन की इच्छा को प्रदर्शित किया जिसमें अधोसंरचना और राज्यों को निधियों के हस्तांतरण के महत्वपूर्ण मुद्दों पर ध्यान केंद्रित किया गया था। वर्तमान बजट सरकार के विमुद्रीकरण के कदम की पृष्ठभूमि में प्रस्तुत किया गया। यह दर्शाने के लिए पर्याप्त आंकडे उपलब्ध नहीं हैं कि सरकार के इस कदम ने अपने उद्देश्य प्राप्त किये हैं अथवा नहीं। वृद्धि के अनुमान बुरी तरह से प्रभावित हुए हैं। अपेक्षा यह की जाती थी कि बजट में अर्थव्यवस्था को वापस पटरी पर लाने के लिए आवश्यक उपाय घोषित किये जाने चाहिए थे। परंतु यह बजट ऐसा करने में सफल नहीं कहा जा सकता। ऐसा प्रतीत होता है कि अर्थव्यवस्था को वापस पटरी आर लौटने के लिए अगले दो वर्ष लग सकते हैं। नौकरियों की स्थिति पर एक विस्तृत लेख पढ़ें सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र की बैंकों की अनर्जक परिसंपत्तियों की स्थिति प्रत्येक बीतते दिन के साथ अधिकाधिक भयावह होती जा रही है। हमारे सामने अमेरिका का उदाहरण है, जो कुछ वर्ष पूर्व इसी प्रकार की समस्या से घिरा था, और अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था अभी तक पटरी पर लौटने के लिए संघर्ष कर रही है। सरकार को इसे और अधिक नजरंदाज नहीं करना चाहिए। सरकार रेटिंग अभिकरणों को पक्षपातपूर्ण कहती है, परंतु निरंतर गिरते निजी निवेश और बढती अनर्जक परिसंपत्तियों की स्थिति में रेटिंग अभिकरणों का कार्य काफी कठिन हो गया है। सरकार को यह समझना होगा।

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Bodhi Saar: India’s job system is broken – repair needed
India’s job system is broken – repair needed
India seems to be following the global trends of jobless growth. Time for some big moves.
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