India’s geostrategic risks and Union Budget

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India's emerging challenges need a strong fiscal support to meet them effectively.


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India’s geostrategic risks and Union Budget


The 2017-18 budget as well as the Economic Survey of 2016-17, both have spelt out the risks that the economy is endangered with, but very little has been done to mitigate these risks. The economy faces risks from the external sector (1) the likelihood of several increases in the Fed rates, (2) uncertainty in commodity prices and (3) increasing signs of retreat from globalization and shift towards protectionism. The Economic Survey has rightly listed apparels and leather as the areas of potential low-skill and high employment generation. The allocation for Footwear Design and Development Institute, which provides skilled human resources and technology development to the leather and footwear industry, has been slashed down to Rs. 0.01 crore from that of Rs. 25 crore in 2016-17.

The Indian Leather Development Programme gets a higher allocation of Rs. 500 crore as against Rs. 400 crore in 2016-17. This programme is meant for improvement in raw material base for the leather industry. Although President Trump has mentioned India as a partner in addressing global challenges, his recent trade policy announcements makes this partnership difficult. It is imperative for India to explore alternative markets. Not much seems to have been done in this area in the budget. Chabahar Port in Iran is an example. This port will provide us access to Afghanistan and other Asian markets. Although discussions on Chabahar port started way back in 1997, not much meaningful has been done in this direction. India’s inconsistent policy towards Iran, as is evident from its neglect of Chabahar port, may lead Iran to tilt towards China, which would be a telling blow for India.


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वर्ष 2017-18 का बजट और 2016-17 की आर्थिक समीक्षा, दोनों ने उन खतरों को विषद किया है जो अर्थव्यवस्था के समक्ष उपस्थित हो सकते हैं, परंतु इन खतरों के शमन की दृष्टि से बजट में अधिक कुछ नहीं किया गया है। भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था के समक्ष निकट भविष्य में (1) अमेरिकी फेड दरों में संभावित अनेक वृद्धियों, (2) वस्तु मूल्यों की अनिश्चितता, और (3) वैश्वीकरण से पीछे हटने और संरक्षणवाद की ओर झुकने के अनेक संकेतों जैसे बाह्य खतरे हैं। आर्थिक समीक्षा में सही रूप से न्यून-कौशल और अधिक रोजगार निर्माण की दृष्टि से सर्वाधिक संभावना वाले क्षेत्रों के रूप में वस्त्रोद्योग और चमड़ा उद्योग को चिन्हित किया है। पादत्राण डिजाइनऔर विकास संस्था, जो चमड़ा और पादत्राण उद्योग को कुशल मानव संसाधन और प्रौद्योगिकी विकास प्रदान करती है, के लिए किया गया आवंटन मात्र 0.01 करोड़ रुपये है जो वर्ष 2016-17 में 25 करोड़ रुपये था।

भारतीय चमड़ा विकास कार्यक्रम को वर्ष 2016-17 के 400 करोड़ रुपये के आवंटन की तुलना में इस वर्ष के बजट में 500 करोड़ रुपये का अधिक आवंटन प्राप्त हुआ है, परंतु यह कार्यक्रम चमड़ा उद्योग के लिए कच्चे माल के आधार में सुधार का कार्य करता है। हालांकि राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्प ने भारत का उल्लेख वैश्विक चुनौतियों से निपटने के लिए एक सहयोगी के रूप में किया है परंतु हाल ही में घोषित उनकी व्यापार नीतियां इस भागीदारी को अधिक भेद्य बना देती हैं। भारत के लिए यह अनिवार्य है कि वह वैकल्पिक बाजारों की खोज करे। बजट में इस दृष्टि से कुछ अधिक किया गया प्रतीत नहीं होता है। ईरान में स्थित चाबहार बंदरगाह इसका एक उदाहरण है। यह बंदरगाह भारत को अफगानिस्तान और अन्य एशियाई बाजारों तक पहुँच प्रदान करेगा। हालांकि चाबहार बंदरगाह पर चर्चा वर्ष 1997 में शुरू हुई थी परंतु अभी तक इस दिशा में कोई ठोस उपाय नहीं किये गए हैं। ईरान के प्रति भारत की असंगत नीति, जैसा कि चाबहार बंदरगाह की अनदेखी से स्पष्ट है, का परिणाम ईरान के चीन की ओर झुकने में हो सकता है जो भारत के लिए एक बड़ा झटका हो सकता है

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Bodhi Saar: India’s geostrategic risks and Union Budget
India’s geostrategic risks and Union Budget
India's emerging challenges need a strong fiscal support to meet them effectively.
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