Enormous change and little visibility

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Trump's turbulence has upset all calculations. Sad part is - alternatives are not visible yet.


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Enormous change and little visibility


The arrival of Donald Trump has brought total turbulence to Washington, and nothing is predictable about the next morning, forget the next month or year. He promised change, he is doing it! The removal of Trump administration’s NSA (National Security Advisor) Michael Flynn was under sensational circumstances. He was accused to have spoken to the Russians promising “normalcy” soon, before Trump was even sworn in. And the media reported that Trump’s people were regularly in touch with Russians during 2016, and that intelligence had intercepted all that! Watch our detailed video analysis on “Arrival of Donald Trump” The TV comedians are enjoying every moment of the opportunity they are getting to lampoon the President, but globally, diplomats don’t know what to do, and what to expect next. The head of government in the US – the richest and most powerful nation – is most unpredictable! After 1945, the so-called global liberal order was credited with holding the world together. It may collapse now. It is constantly criticized by both the “extreme right” and the “extreme left” as an exploitative elitist system. Democracy can be of two types – Populist  Electoral democracy or Liberal democracy. The liberal version is weakening worldwide  [ How do we know that? What are the proofs? ]  Read the full Bodhi on Arrival of Donald Trump, here. Robert Kagan (Brookings Institution) says – World orders have this habit of breaking down rapidly and violently. The EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit) has downgraded USA to “a flawed democracy”. Freedom House has categorized USA as “Countries to watch in 2017”. [Other members? Iraq, Zimbabwe, Philippines]
So if Trump decides to abdicate the leader of the world chair, who steps in, remains the big question. An authoritarian and opaque but powerful China? Or an open and democratic but poor India? No one knows. We have done multiple analyses of US and Trump. May like to watch them on Bodhi Shiksha channel. And we wrote a Bodhi on "Tectonic changes in world politics" - a fantastic read, here!

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व्यापक परिवर्तन और अल्पदृश्यता


डॉनल्ड ट्रंप के आगमन से वाशिंगटन में भारी उथल-पुथल मच गई है, और कल सुबह के बारे में कुछ नहीं कह सकते, अगले महीने या वर्ष को तो छोड़ दें। उन्होंने बदलाव का वादा किया था, ओर वो ले आये! ट्रंप प्रशासन के राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षा सलाहाकार (एनएसए) माईकल फ्लिन को सनसनीखेज परिस्थितियों में त्यागपत्र देना पड़ा। उन पर आरोप था कि ट्रंप के शपथ लेने से पूर्व ही उन्होंने रूसियों से वादा कर दिया था कि ‘‘सामान्य स्थिति तुरंत आ जायेगी’’। उसके बाद मीडिया ने यह छापा कि ट्रंप के करीबी लोग 2016 में लगातार रूसियों के संपर्क में रहें, एवं खुफिया विभाग ने वो पकड़ ली थी! ‘डॉनल्ड ट्रंप के आगमन पर हमारा वीडियो विश्लेषण देखें, यहां। हालांकि टीवी पर हास्य अभिनेता राष्ट्रपति का मजाक बनाने का हर मौका भुना रहे हैं, किंतु वैश्विक स्तर पर राजनाईकों को नहीं पता कि आगे क्या करें और कैसे करें। अमेरिका की सरकार का प्रमुख - विश्व का सबसे अमीर और शक्तिशाली देश - एक अप्रत्याशित व्यवहार वाला व्यक्ति है! 1945 के बाद इस तथाकथित वैश्विक उदारवादी व्यवस्था को श्रेय दिया गया कि उसने विश्व को एक सूत्र में बांधे रखा है। वह व्यवस्था अब बिखर सकती है। इस व्यवस्था को एक कुलीनवादी शोषणकारी व्यवस्था बताकर ‘‘अति-वामपंथियों’’ एवं ‘‘अति-दक्षिणपंथियों’’ दोनों ने ही भर्त्सना की है। लोकतंत्र दो प्रकारों का हो सकता है - लोकलुभावनवादी चुनावी लोकतंत्र अथवा उदारवादी लोकतंत्र। यह उदारवादी प्रकार विश्व भर में कमजोर हो गया है [ यह हमें कैसे पता? इसके क्या सबूत है? ] डॉनल्ड ट्रंप के आगमन पर हमारी पूर्ण बोधि अवश्य पढ़ें, यहां। ब्रुकिंग संसाथान के रॉबर्ट कैगन कहते हैं - तुरंत और हिंसक रूप से टूट जाने की विश्व व्यवस्थाओं की पुरानी प्रवृत्ति रही है। इकानामिस्ट इंटिलिजेंस यूनिट (ईआईयू) ने अमेरिका का दर्जा गिरा कर ‘‘एक त्रुटिपूर्ण लोकतंत्र’’ कर दिया है। फ्रीडम हाउस ने तो अमेरिका को ‘‘2017 में इन देशों पर नजर रखें’’ में जोड दिया है। [इसके अन्य सदस्य? ईराक, जिंबाबवे, फिलिपीन्स]

तो यदि विश्व नेतृत्व की कुर्सी ट्रंप ने छोड़ना तय कर ली, तो उनकी जगह कौन आयेगा यह अनुत्तरित प्रश्न है। क्या यह जगह एक सत्तावादी और अपारदर्शी किंतु ताकतवर चीन लेगा? या एक खुला और लोकतांत्रिक कितु गरीब देश भारत लेगा? कोई नहीं जानता। अमेरिका और ट्रंप के हमारे अनेकों विश्लेषण आप चैनल पर देखें। और विश्व राजनीति के विवर्तनिक परिवर्तनों पर हमारी शानदार बोधि पढ़ें, यहाँ 

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Bodhi Saar: Enormous change and little visibility
Enormous change and little visibility
Trump's turbulence has upset all calculations. Sad part is - alternatives are not visible yet.
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