The mystery of Inflation in today’s times!

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The suppressed consumer prices may rise again, as a persistent WPI rise indicates.


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The mystery of Inflation in today’s times!


An economy works on many engines, some of which can be (1) Private investment, (2) Private consumption, (3) Public investment, (4) Public consumption (i.e. government expenditures), and (5) Exports. Today, India is using (2) and (3) to stimulate (1). India needs investment cycle to pick up big time, as only then will job creation happen. And our youth need jobs desperately, in huge numbers. Inflation is a general negative factor in all these calculations. The RBI tracks consumer prices (CPI – Combined) since 2014-15 as per recommendations of the Urjit Patel Committee, and has stopped tracking the WPI for policy-setting-purposes. In the fifth bi-monthly statement of December 2016, headline inflation was projected at 5 % in Q4 of 2016-17. Deflation in vegetables and pulses pushed prices down in Nov-Dec 2016 (due to a seasonal ebb, demand compression due to DeMo, distress sales of perishables). January 2017 saw the fastest rise in wholesale prices (compared to 30 previous months), and ultimately the soft consumer prices will also follow suit (in same direction). 
Non-food articles and fuel prices (consumer level) have been growing since Sept.2016, though food prices are soft (thanks to a good 2016 Monsoon). This “sticky core inflation” is driving WPI rise. If global crude prices rise, then either the high excise duties will be reduced (reducing govt. revenues) or they won’t be reduced (pushing inflation up). RBI’s latest monetary policy was “neutral” and not accommodative as it felt there were short term DeMo effects playing out. (which means that DeMo had affected output and prices both negatively, both were down, as demand was down). Commodities are getting pricier, pushing manufactured goods prices up. Click here to view the RBI inflation outlook in Feb.2017 Oil prices were low, and the blessing was used by government to earn a bonanza of indirect taxes i.e. excise duties (as per Govt : “they did not reduce taxes as consumers would otherwise have experienced an upward price shock later!”).  Now if crude goes beyond $65 a barrel, then either the high excise duties will be reduced (reducing govt. revenues) or they won’t be reduced (pushing inflation up). RBI’s latest monetary policy was “neutral” and not accommodative as it felt there were short term DeMo effects playing out. (which means that DeMo had affected output and prices both negatively, both were down, as demand was down). [ Go to Bodhi Resources page for RBI documents Feb 2017 ] India badly needs huge consumer spending in coming months (refer Point 1 above) but inflation can impact that. Check our video analyses on Indian Economy here, videos on Taxation here, and on  World Economy here

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आज का मुद्रास्फीति रहस्य!


एक अर्थव्यवस्था अनेक इंजनों पर चलती है, जिनमें से कुछ होते हैं (1) निजी निवेश (2) निजी उपभोग, (3) सरकारी (सार्वजनिक) निवेश, (4) सार्वजनिक उपभोग (अर्थात सरकारी व्यय), और (5) निर्यात। आज (1) को प्रोत्साहित करने हेतु भारत (2) और (3) का प्रयोग कर रहा है। आज भारत में आवश्यकता है कि निवेश चक्र तेजी से चलने लगे, क्योंकि तभी नौकरियों का सृजन हो सकेगा। और हमारे युवाओं को बड़ी मात्रा में नौकरियों की आवश्यकता है। इस सभी गणनाओं में मुद्रास्फीति अकसर एक नकारात्मक कारण होती है। सन 2014-15 से उर्जित पटेल समिति की अनुशंसाओं के अनुरूप, आरबीआई उपभोक्ता मूल्यों  (सीपीआई-संयुक्त) पर नज़र रखता है, और नीति निर्माण हेतु उसने डब्ल्यूपीआई (थोक मूल्य सूचकांक) का प्रयोग रोक दिया है। दिसंबर 2016 के अपने पांचवें द्विमासिक व्यक्तव्य में, मुख्य मुद्रास्फीति दर को 2016-17 की चौथी तिमाही में 5 प्रतिशत अनुमानित किया गया था। सब्जियों और दालों की कीमतों की गिरावट ने नवंबर-दिसंबर 2016 में कीमतें गिरा दी (यह हुआ एक मौसमी उतार, विमुद्रीकरण से मांग संकुचन, एवं नाशवान खाद्य पदार्थों की मजबूरी में बिक्री से)। जनवरी 2017 में थोक मूल्यों में सबसे तीव्र वृद्धि हुई (पिछले 30 महीनों के मुकाबले), और अंततः उपभोक्ता कीमतों में भी यही परिवर्तन आयेगा (उसी दिशा में)। 

गैर-खाद्य वस्तुऐं और इंधन की कीमतें (उपभोक्ता स्तर पर) सिंतबर 2016 से ही बढ़ती जा रही हैं, हालांकि खाद्य की कीमतें अभी नर्म हैं (चूंकि 2016 का मॉनसून बहुत अच्छा रहा) "नहीं घट रही मूल वस्तुओं की मुद्रास्फीति" थोक मूल्य सूचकांक में हो रही वृद्धि का कारण हैं। कृपया फरवरी 2017 में आरबीआई का मुद्रास्फीति परिदृश्य समझेंतेल की कीमतें कम थी, और इस स्थिति का फायदा सरकार ने अप्रत्यक्ष करों अर्थात उत्पाद शुल्क की कमाई बढ़ाने हेतु लिया (सरकार के अनुसारः ‘‘हमने कर इसलिये नहीं घटाये ताकि बाद में उपभोक्ताओं को बढ़ते मूल्यों का झटका ना लगे!’’)। अब यदि कच्चे तेल की कीमतें प्रति बैरल 65 डॉलर से उपर गईं, तो या तो उच्च उत्पाद शुल्क घटाये जाएगें (जिससे सरकारी राजस्व घटेगा) या वे नहीं घटाये जाएगें (जिससे मुद्रास्फीति बढ़ेगी)। आरबीआई की नवीन मौद्रिक नीति ‘‘तटस्थ’’ रही और इसमें ज्यादा ढील नहीं दी गई क्योंकि उसका मानना था की अल्पअवधि के नोट बंदी प्रभाव अभी जारी थे। (जिसका अर्थ है कि विमुद्रीकरण ने उत्पाद और मूल्य दोनों को नकारात्मक रूप से प्रभावित किया है, दोनों ही गिरे हुए हैं, क्योंकि मांग घट गई है)। [ फरवरी 2017 के आरबीआई दस्तावेज देखने हेतु बोधि संसाधन पृष्ठ पर जायें ] भारत को आने वाले महीनों में उपभोक्ता व्यय में तीव्र वृद्धि चाहिए (उपरोक्त बिंदु देंखें) किंतु मुद्रास्फीति इसे प्रभावित करेगी। भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था, कराधान, विश्व अर्थव्यवस्था पर हमारे वीडियो विश्लेषण बोधि शिक्षा चैनल पर देखें।

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Bodhi Saar: The mystery of Inflation in today’s times!
The mystery of Inflation in today’s times!
The suppressed consumer prices may rise again, as a persistent WPI rise indicates.
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Bodhi Saar
http://saar.bodhibooster.com/2017/02/Inflation-in-India-WPI-CPI-demonetisation-RBI-monetary-policy-Feb-2017.html
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