Pitter-patter of Monsoon 2017

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Monsoon is inter-twined with El Nino and La Nina, like never before. We analyse.


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Pitter-patter of Monsoon 2017



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  1. The present situation : According to Skymet Weather, normal date of arrival of Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands is May 20.  At present, weather models are indicating towards the significant increase in intensity of rains over South Andaman Sea soon. This will be on account of the formation of cyclonic circulation over South Andaman Sea in the coming days.  
  2. The journey of monsoon : Normally, Monsoon takes around two weeks to reach Kerala after making onset over the Islands. The official date for the commencement of Monsoon season in India is June 1, which spans across four months till September 30.  It is the harbinger of life for most of India, as 65% are engaged directly and indirectly in agriculture.
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  4. Welcome home! The long awaited Southwest Monsoon finally arrived almost three days before its scheduled date over Nicobar Islands, parts of Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal. The persisting cyclonic circulation over Andaman Sea will become a low pressure soon making way for the further advancement of Monsoon over more parts of the Andaman and Nicobar islands.  
  5. El Nino : On May 10, 2017, news broke that the prospects of the Monsoon have brightened because of the reduction in the likelihood of El Nino. The recent developments on El Nino indicate that the Monsoon could be normal this year and could reach 100% of the long period average (LPA). The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BOM) had downgraded the occurrence of El Nino and that the prospects of monsoon could improve slightly. The BOM is forecasting a drop in temperatures in Nino region 3.4 of the Pacific.
  6. What is El Nino? El Nino is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. The El Nino phenomenon is a part of a chain of meteorological events that extends from the eastern Pacific to northern Australia, Indonesia and into the heartland of India. There is a rather weak correlation between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rains.
  7. And what is La Nina? La Nina is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Nino as part of the broader El Nino–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. During a period of La Nina, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3 to 5 °C. Each country and island nation has a different threshold for what constitutes a La Nina event, which is tailored to their specific interests.
  8. Is there a correlation? Analysis by the India Meteorological Department shows that, of the 18 El Nino years between 1880 and 2006, twelve coincided with deficient or below-normal rainfall in India. This means that, for a third of the time, there was no correlation, and that has resulted in some very wrong monsoon forecasts. More recent research aimed at finding a more robust correlation indicates that not all El Ninos cause drought, and only warming in the central Pacific correlates with drought in India while warming in the eastern Pacific means a normal monsoon.
  9. Do check out exams-focussed Confidence and Vocabulary Booster series of learning resources here
  10. Download Resources : PDFs on defence & military and related issues available on Bodhi Resources page here. And, here are some facts and images to help the case better.
  11. Deep Dive : (1) Monsoon related - here(2) Environment related - here(3) Paris agreement related  - here
  12. Bodhi Saar Prashn : a fantastic collection of all quiz questions for your revision - here!





The South-West Monsoon


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The North-East Monsoon


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El Nino

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La Nina

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Bodhi Saar: Pitter-patter of Monsoon 2017
Pitter-patter of Monsoon 2017
Monsoon is inter-twined with El Nino and La Nina, like never before. We analyse.
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Bodhi Saar
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