Indian Economy dynamics – 2017

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India may lose the fastest growing economy tag for a while. How fast will it recover?

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Indian Economy dynamics – 2017


The first major prediction from IMF about Indian GDP for 2016-17 is that it will be 1% less than estimated. The RBI’s estimate has been 0.5% and as per the Governor, of that 0.5%, only 0.15% is due to DeMo (Demonetisation).

The difference in approach – RBI finds DeMo having a short term impact, but IMF thinks it will last another year. So, maybe for a year, India will lose the “fastest growing economy” tag. Remember China is facing a huge debt bubble.  [ Check Bodhi Resources for report ] As per the IMF, sectors affected hugely by DeMo are – Housing and Real Estate, Casual Labour, Auto, Agri.  So Total Loss = 0.5% of GDP 2016-17 + 0.5% of GDP 2017-18 + Rs.16,000 cr in DeMo operations = Rs.2.5 lac cr! 

So what estimates may go awry? (a) RBI cannot write off any liability as almost everything as come back (hence laundering has been amazingly successful – sad), (b) No boon available to be put into 26 million JanDhan accounts, (c) No special bonus available for government for public investments. Worst case scenario – say only 2, 3 or 4 % notes do not come back. 1% = Rs.15,000 cr. Hence, at least Rs.30 to Rs.45,000 crores written off (windfall gain). Plus, add those taxes from incomes now counted in white. So overall the GoI may have some money. (50, 60, 70, 80 thousand crores?). Even if PM Modi can put a few thousand rupees in each JanDhan account, it will look like a huge symbolic success. First time in India’s history. But on larger fronts, India is not moving as fast. (1) Jobs creation is low (Proof? Huge employment reservation protests), (2) Exports have sunk (Proof? Numbers for many quarters), (3) Investment cycles are stuck (Proof? Bank credit growth to private sector), (4) Corrution is endemic (Proof? State government or lower bureaucracy statistics) Overall, a very delicate time ahead for Indian economy. We need to push together, harmoniously, positively.

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भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था की गतिकी - 2017


अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्राकोष की ओर से वर्ष 2016-17 की भारतीय जीडीपी के पहले प्रमुख अनुमान ये हैं कि यह अनुमान से 1 प्रतिशत कम होगी। आरबीआई के अनुमान 0.5 प्रतिशत हैं और आरबीआई गवर्नर के अनुसार इस 0.5 प्रतिशत में से केवल 0.15 प्रतिशत ही विमुद्रीकरण के कारण हैं। 

दृष्टिकोण में अंतर - आरबीआई की दृष्टि से विमुद्रीकरण का प्रभाव अल्पकालिक होगा जबकि अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्राकोष का मानना है कि इसका प्रभाव एक वर्ष तक रहेगा। अतः, यह प्रभाव एक वर्ष के लिए ही क्यों न हो परंतु इसके कारण भारत “सबसे तेजी से बढ़ने वाली अर्थव्यवस्था” का अपना तमगा खो देगा। याद रखें कि चीन एक विशाल ऋण के बुलबुले का सामना कर रहा है। [ बोधि संसाधन देखें ], अंतर्राष्टीय मुद्राकोष के अनुसार विमुद्रीकरण के कारण प्रभावित होने वाले क्षेत्र हैं - अचल संपत्ति (रियल एस्टेट), आकस्मिक श्रम, ऑटो क्षेत्र, कृषि। अतः कुल हानि = वर्ष 2016-17 की जीडीपी का 0.5 प्रतिशत + वर्ष 2017-18 की जीडीपी का 0.5 प्रतिशत + विमुद्रीकरण की कार्यवाही के 16,000 करोड़ रुपये = 2.5 लाख करोड़ रुपये

अतः कौन से अनुमान समाप्त होंगे? (ए) संभवतः आरबीआई किसी भी देयता को बट्टे खाते में नहीं डाल सकती क्योंकि लगभग संपूर्ण धनराशि वापस आ गई है (अतः धन-शोधन अप्रत्याशित रूप से सफल रहा है - यह निराशाजनक है), (बी) ऐसा कोई वरदान उपलब्ध नहीं है जिसे 2.6 करोड़ जन-धन खातों में डाला जा सके, (सी) सार्वजनिक निवेशों के लिए सरकार के पास कोई बोनस उपलब्ध नहीं हैं। सबसे बुरी स्थिति - मान लें कि 2, 3 या 4 प्रतिशत नोट वापस नहीं आते हैं। 1 प्रतिशत = 15,000 करोड़ रुपये। अतः कम से कम 30 से 45,000 करोड़ रुपये बट्टे खाते में चले गए हैं (अप्रत्याशित लाभ) । साथ ही उन आयों से प्राप्त करों को जोड़ें जिनकी गणना अब सफेद धन में की जा रही है। अतः समग्र रूप से भारत सरकार के पास कुछ धनराशि होगी (50, 60, 70, 80 हजार करोड़ रुपये?) यदि प्रधानमंत्री मोदी प्रत्येक जन-धन खाते में कुछ हजार रुपये डाल पाते हैं तो इसे एक विशाल प्रतीकात्मक लाभ के रूप में देखा जाएगा। ऐसा भारत के इतिहास में पहली बार होगा परंतु अधिक बड़े मोर्चों पर भारत उतनी तेजी से आगे नहीं बढ़ रहा है। (1) रोजगार निर्माण की गति धीमी है (सबूत? बड़े पैमाने पर रोजगार आरक्षण का विरोध), (2) निर्यातों में गिरावट हुई है (सबूत? अनेक तिमाहियों के आंकडे), (3) निवेश चक्रों में गिरावट हुई है (सबूत? निजी क्षेत्र के लिए बैंक ऋण की वृद्धि), (4) भ्रष्टाचार का स्थानिक प्रकोप है (सबूत? राज्य सरकारों या निचले स्तर की नौकरशाही के आंकडे) समग्र रूप से, भारतीय अर्थ्व्यवास्स्था के लिए आने वाला समय अत्यंत नाजुक है। हमें एकजुट होकर आगे बढ़ना होगा, सौहार्दपूर्ण ढंग से, सकारात्मक ढंग सें

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Bodhi Saar: Indian Economy dynamics – 2017
Indian Economy dynamics – 2017
India may lose the fastest growing economy tag for a while. How fast will it recover?
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